Hi list,
After much reflection of the great What-Goes-Where-On-A-Scout-Car debacle
(previous posting) I have come to a singular conclusion which I shall share
with you at the end of this posting.
First of all there is no such thing as a 50/50 chance. In fact, I estimate
the very best each of us gets is a 40/60 chance of success, presuming we
care about the outcome of whatever the situation is. Only when we are
totally cavalier about the outcome of a particular situation can a 50/50
chance exist. I shall illustrate with a typical household situation, rather
than an HMV restoration since not all HMV owners are restorers.
Several years ago a renowned institution of higher learning and technical
expertise demonstrated that a piece of bread, prepared with (*insert your
favorite topping here*) dropped from the edge of a table, would land
buttered side down and dry side up more often than not. They concluded that
it was the height of the table that was the mitigating factor in this event.
I say their math is not quite right, so try to keep up with me on this.
First, the fact that the bread was prepared presupposes that one actually
cared to eat the bread. From this we can extrapolate; had the bread been
unprepared, no matter how it landed it would have landed dry side down!
Now we see that the odds of being able to dust off our food and eat it
(yeah, we ate food off the floor where I was raised...) have gone down by
our wanting to eat it (for simplicity I will use 10 percent increments) to
right around 30/70! (From 50/50, a 10 percent whack for table height;
40/60. Another 10 percent whack for preparing the food: 30/70.)
Yes, we may want to eat the bread prepared with (*re-insert your favorite
topping here*) but if there is plenty more bread and toppings on the table,
we won't care as much about the outcome. The level of desire also plays a
big part in factoring this percentage of success. Extreme desire works
against you.
By way of further illustration, if it is the LAST piece of bread in the
house, with the LAST bit of (whatever) and you are REALLY hungry, we all
know instinctively that the odds of it being ruined by a fall from the table
increase dramatically. Our chance of success then reduces even further,
to......no chance at all!! From 50/50, a 10 percent whack for table height;
40/60. A 10 percent whack for preparing the food; 30/70. Another 10
percent whack for it being the last piece of bread; 20/80. Another 10
percent whack for it having the last bit of topping; 10/90. Another 10
percent whack for extreme desire due to hunger; 00/100.
Returning to the world if HMV restorations, you can see why I had
difficulties. I offer the only conclusion that I have reached out of the
whole darned mess.
Keep it just for fun.
Maybe the odds won't see you comin'!
Your devoted Scout restorer and slightly crazed insomniac,
TJ
MVPA 21162
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon Mar 05 2001 - 07:58:35 PST