Hmm, maybe we're chasing the wrong guy, folks. Read this for a breath of
logic.
John
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>Date: Sun, 16 Sep 2001 17:01:46 -0500 (CDT)
>From: <alert@stratfor.com>
>To: redalert@stratfor.com
>Subject: Islamic Radical Network
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>____________________________________________________S T R A T F O RTHE
>GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
>COMPANY____________________________________________________16 September
>2001COMPLIMENTARY INTELLIGENCE REPORT - FULL
>TEXT____________________________________________________**NOTE**This is a
>complimentary full-text intelligence report, normally reserved for members
>only. For full-text reports every day and access to the full range of
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>today!
>http://www.stratfor.com/COMPANY/info.htm____________________________________________________U.S.
>Faces Islamic Radical Network2100 GMT, 010916SummaryThis week's terrorist
>attacks demonstrate clearly for the first time the existence of a
>multi-national, global network of Islamic radicals and their sympathizers.
>The United States is gearing up for war against an enemy that may span
>half the globe and is comprised of thousands individuals and different
>organizations. AnalysisThe United States has declared war on international
>terrorism. In his weekly radio address Sept. 15 U.S. President George W.
>Bush warned Americans to brace themselves for "a conflict without
>battlefields or beachheads," and called on U.S. military personnel to get
>ready for battle. The president earlier met with his top security advisors
>at Camp David in order to hammer out a U.S. military response to the Sept.
>11 terrorist attacks on the United States.Identifying the enemy, however,
>will be neither simple nor straightforward. A number of officials
>including U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell have named Saudi exile
>Osama bin Laden as the chief suspect. But evidence suggests that while his
>umbrella organization Al-Qaida was involved at some point, bin Laden
>himself isn't likely the mastermind behind the attacks. The skill and
>scope of the operation indicates that more than one base of support was
>necessary. The operational resources required to pull off this week's
>attacks indicate the existence of a much larger threa
>dical Islamic network with operatives and sympathizers all across the
>globe. Such a network likely connects a variety of Islamic radical and
>terrorist groups. Understanding this is the key to Washington's
>warfighting strategy. In aiming to dismantle the infrastructure supporting
>terrorist groups, the United States will now begin focusing efforts on
>identifying members and supporters of this global network. Bin Laden and
>Al-Qaida will likely be only the first targets.As the world's most
>notorious terrorist leader bin Laden has provided training, logistics and
>support to a host of Islamic radicals including Algerian, Egyptian,
>Jordanian, Pakistani, Sudanese, Syrian and Yemeni nationals. His training
>camps in Afghanistan provide a basis for learning the tools and techniques
>of terrorism. In a way bin Laden could be thought of as the president of a
>university devoted to the education of radical Islamic terrorists. But
>taking out bin Laden won't end the threat of more terrorist attacks
>against the United States, since logic dictates that Al-Qaida could not
>have been the only organization involved in the Sept. 11 strikes.Like any
>business venture, no one group would be able to supply all the resources.
>Instead, various aspects of the operation would be farmed out to different
>groups or individuals within the network. Al-Qaida as an umbrella
>organization is but one group within a network of radical Islamic
>organizations that stretches from Cairo to Manila, from Kabul to Algiers.
>The sheer scope and skill with which the operations were carried out
>required several levels of planning, organizing, intelligence and
>operational experience and capabilities. The masterminds behind this
>week's operation began forming their attack plan years ago. They then
>needed to locate funding and likely turned to sympathetic financiers who
>could arrange for aid from even more sympathetic donors. The planners also
>set up separate departments with directors to handle counterintelligence,
>logistics
>ers and passports, finances and recruitment. At the same time, security is
>maintained by isolating each department from the others so that the
>organization is not compromised.Each division required support from a
>variety of sources, which neither bin Laden nor his network could provide.
>In fact, to say bin Laden himself masterminded the assault overlooks some
>important limitations under which he is currently operating. For one he is
>trapped in Afghanistan and is limited in what he can do. The Saudi
>dissident cannot even make phone calls and has had to resort to courier
>services in order to communicate with his associates. For years, the
>United States tracked communications in country and listened in on his
>phone conversations made over the Immarsat-3 satellite telephone network.
>Directing an operation like the one that took place Sept. 11 would require
>flexible management that could adapt to a variety of situations,
>necessitating quick and reliable means of communication.Even financing the
>operation would have required resources beyond bin Laden and Al-Qaida's
>ability. According to U.S. officials quoted by United Press International,
>Washington had bin Laden's financial and operational networks almost
>"completely mapped" out in detail by mid-1997. This suggest that bin
>Laden's finances have been at most severely limited and at least under
>constant surveillance. It would have been impossible for his bankers to
>wire money to operatives in the United States without tipping off U.S.
>intelligence agencies. Clearly, bin Laden could not have financed this
>week's operation alone. Al-Qaida could have easily provided training and
>perhaps even recruits. But there are several other organizations that
>could also be tapped for intelligence, logistical assistance, operational
>planning and financing. For example, the Egyptian group al-Gama'at
>al-Islamiyya orchestrated the bombing of the World Trade Center in 1993
>and has experience operating in the United States. It also has links to
>ness leaders who travel frequently and could provide information on
>airline security standards in the United States.Another example can be
>seen in the bombing of the USS Cole in Yemen last October. The group
>blamed for that attack has been linked to bin Laden, but there is no
>evidence that it acted directly under his command. That group, like the
>recent attackers, employed crude tactics and weapons in a sophisticated
>manner to cause massive damage. It managed to severely damage a U.S.
>destroyer, not to mention the U.S. sense of dominance, with a rubber
>inflatable boat.Indeed, there are hundreds of radical Islamic
>organizations operating around the world, all individual and distinct from
>each other, that could have provided support. Although in the past a
>majority focused on local issues and did not operate beyond their national
>borders, a new picture is now emerging. This picture is one of a global
>network tying all Islamic groups together in a loose coalition. Like the
>Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, this network is comprised of organizations
>and sympathetic individuals from all over the Muslim world, including
>financiers and aid donors, government officials and diplomats, former and
>possibly current military officers, intelligence agents, former and
>current guerrilla and militant groups, information technology specialists
>and operational commanders and their lieutenants. It is then quite
>possible that the group that masterminded the Sept. 11 terror attacks is
>comprised of a collection of individuals from several different countries.
>Indeed, the FBI's list of suspects reads like a student roster from the
>renowned Al-Ahzar University in Cairo. The operatives who carried out the
>attack came from countries across the Middle East, including possibly
>Egypt, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. There was no
>local issue tying them all together. The United States thinks it is going
>to war with bin Laden, Al-Qaida or the unnamed group directly responsible
>for this
>own the infrastructure supporting these groups will require the U.S. to
>identify and dismantle the larger, global network. That, like dismantling
>the drug trafficking networks in Latin America, West Africa or Europe,
>will be a monumental
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