From: Neil E. Amrhein (neil@netfox.net)
Date: Fri May 16 2003 - 21:47:20 PDT
Fred,
I've never seen a GL auction (at least, none that I have followed) that did
not go up dramatically in the last few hours. There are only 2 reasons for
this, in my opinion. #1 is that you are "picking" at the high bidder, trying
to just edge him/her out. #2 (my reason) is that I want to know where the
bidding is going, to see if it will pass my maximum, before I bid. If it
does, I don't even get in on it. There's no point. I'm always amused by the
first strategy, but it is human nature. People want things as cheap as
possible. However, if you bid the absolute maximum you are willing to pay
from the start, then you are the smarter bidder (in my opinion). If you pick
at the high bid, then where do you decide to draw your line?
If you bid the max from the start, then you don't even have to follow the
auction. What if you lose an item by $5? Would you have been willing to pay
$10 more to own it? If so, then you did not bid your maximum to start with,
and you are a victim of your own greed. That's a fact, like it or not. If
you lose it by $5, but you were unwilling to pay the extra $10 to win (if,
in fact the other guy was not willing to pay $10 more to get it back), then
you are the smart bidder, even though you lost. At least you know your own
limits. The emotion and adrenaline of the live auction causes people to
become irrational. It's like a feeding frenzy. The more intense the action,
the hotter the involved parties get. It's almost as if people simply can't
get out-bid by the other guy. Ego? Maybe.
Both GSA and GL use the "idle time" close for their auctions. These auctions
allow the sellers to take advantage of the "It's only another $10" syndrome.
It is very easy to talk yourself up by $10, $50, or even $100 at a time for
the right item, especially when it's coming down to the wire. Since there
has to be an "idle period" before the auction ends, it gives people the time
to re-think and to talk themselves up. They usually did not bid their max if
this is the case. However, a legitimate reason for this would be that they
have re-evaluated the value of the item (given the bidding war), and have
decided it is worth more than what they originally thought. I think this is
the minority of cases, though, and is still questionable. It is now worth
more to you because it is worth more to someone else?
Personally, I think the best strategy for this type of auction is to follow
it, bid your max close to the end (if you are still in the range), and let
it ride. It's going to end up where it ends up. Example: If you are bidding
on an M35A2, and you REALLY HAVE to own it, you will probably bid high to
get it. In that case, you are going to win it either way. So, you might as
well go hard-core. Drop your maximum proxy near then end and you'll end up
with it for slightly over the next guys max. Be careful about setting your
max, though. Don't just say: "I'll put 10K on it. That will win it." If 2 of
you do this, then someone just paid $10K for an M35A2 that was passed over
by every organization known to man. Ouch!
Everyone has their methods, but I just do not think "incremental" bidding
late in the game is the right way to go. Despite the fact that you can
derive some satisfaction in knowing that you out-did the next buyer by a few
bucks, you could easily become an out-of control bidder. Besides, you'll
outbid the next guy by a few bucks with a proxy, too. The only real
advantage to incremental bidding late in the game is that you can chip away
at the guys who put in their proxies early and are not following the bidding
(or do not plan on increasing their bids). But, remember, they are usually
the smarter bidders, even if they lose, because you have the "$10 more"
syndrome....
My $.02....
----- Original Message -----
From: "Fred H. Schlesinger" <fred@schlesingers.net>
To: "Military Vehicles Mailing List" <mil-veh@mil-veh.org>
Sent: Friday, May 16, 2003 7:27 PM
Subject: [MV] Gl BIDDING STRATEGY
> Is there a favorite strategy for bidding on an MV(required content) at a
GL
> auction?
>
> Do you Autobid what you think is fair early?
> or do you wait until the last minute?
>
> I've never bid on a GL auction. I notice that unlike EPAY, the auction
doesn't
> end until everyone is done bidding.
>
> Does this effect strategy?
>
>
>
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