From: Steve Grammont (islander@midmaine.com)
Date: Sun Nov 07 2004 - 10:07:45 PST
In general I agree with the others who have chimed in. I usually bid my
"next-to-top-bid" right away and see where it gets me. Often I find that
several days before the bidding ends that someone else wants it worse
than me, which allows me to forget about that one and concentrate on others.
However, there is something the rest of you guys are overlooking. It is
called "sniping" and it can work. Here's how it can work...
Towards the end of the bidding on an active item it often has reached a
reasonable and fair value. That means it can likely be outbid by a few
cents or a buck. Say for example a steering wheel for some slightly
uncommon MV. Let's say it's 5 seconds left in the bidding and 2 active
bidders have put it to $101. Now, what are the chances that one of the
bidders has put in an amount significantly higher than $101? (assume the
"real" value to be about $100). Along comes a "sniper" who, like Larry,
has been sitting there watching and waiting for 7 days to get that
steering wheel.
The sniper figures that the value really is around $100, but that he
won't likely have to pay more than $102 to win. Now, what is the
difference in value between $101 and $102? Nothing in any real sense.
So he slams in a bid at the very last second for $110 (because there is
no time to do a second bid) and sure enough... gets it for $102. Now the
sniper walks away with the item because there is no longer any time left
for the other two bidders to try again.
Now, David et all will say "then you should have put in a higher bid if
you valued it higher". True. VERY true. But at some point you say to
yourself "$100 is my top bid" but *after* you lose it you think "cripes,
I would have gone $103!!". This is what the sniper is trying to avoid...
a counter bid. If he put in his $102 bid a day before the auction ended,
what might you or the other guy bidding say? "Well, what's the
difference between $101 and $103 anyway?" and put in a bid for $103. Or
perhaps you now sit and reevaluate what you value this thing at and
instead think your top bid is more like $110 because you have a parade
coming up and wouldn't mind paying a slight premium for having THIS ONE
NOW as opposed to another one later.
There is also another type of sniper... and this guy plays with big dice.
He figures that the top bidder is a sane person and has only put in a
sensible top bid, or perhaps hasn't yet put in his top bid at all (like
me sometimes). The auction winds down and the value is still quite low,
or at least below market value. The sniper waits until the last second
and puts in a whopper of an insane bid. 2 times what it is worth, for
example. This means that he will likely win the item because... the
auction is over. In the steering wheel example, if it was currently at
$25 and someone's top bid was $101 he gets it for $102. If the top bid
was $35 he gets it for $36. If the top bid was $110, well... he didn't
do so well BUT he still has it at $111. The only way he will get burned
is if the current top bidder has an insanely high bid in or someone else
slams in a similarly insane bid a nanosecond afterwards, but $1 or less.
These last scenarios are HIGHLY unlikely so this strategy, over all,
probably works really well. Who knows how often it is used, but I
suspect far more frequently than anybody would imagine. I've certainly
seen more than a few items sell at the last second with an inexplicable
high bid coming in from left field.
In conclusion... I generally bid my "next-to-top-bid" right away and then
see where it goes. As the auction nears its end I decide if this is
something I want to fight for or not. If so, I try to watch the thing to
the very end and defend myself against snipers by slamming home my "top
bid" just before the auction ends. Otherwise I tend to pop in my "top
bid" a day or several hours before the auction ends even if I am top
bidder at the time ("reinforcing my bid"). This is a defensive strategy
that I've had to adopt after losing more than a few bids at the last
second for $1 more than my top bid, then deciding after the fact that I
might have wanted to go a little higher.
More food for thought :-)
Steve
>everette et. al.,
>
>I never bid till the last 7 seconds. Can you or anyone explain to me the
>logic of bidding before the close? I bid the max I'm going to pay, not to
>"win" against someone else.
>
>What confounds me is why people bid in advance and run up the price!! I see
>newbies with low feedback bidding because they're personally involved in
>winning the fight. But, I have yet to understand why anyone would advertise
>their interest in an item by bidding in advance.
>
>Tons of my mil vehicle stuff have come from eBay...great deals...especially
>if the sell listed it improperly and I found it.
>
>Curious minds want to know, why bid before the closing moments???
>
>Lar
>www.antiquetelephone.com
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "everette" <194cbteng@bellsouth.net>
>To: "Military Vehicles Mailing List" <mil-veh@mil-veh.org>
>Sent: Saturday, November 06, 2004 9:34 PM
>Subject: [MV] new - to me - ebay scam
>
>
>>I bid on at item offered on ebay - did not have real need for the item but
>> it was priced cheap so I bid, was outbid and I made one more bid and
>> stopped. Day or so after sales closed I got an email from seller - at
>> least
>> said was seller - Stating that the purchaser had backed out and if I was
>> still interested I could have the item for my last bid plus one dollar, I
>> replied "sure how do I complete the sale?".
>>
>> I then got a reply that said -- I will call you and you give me your
>> credit
>> card, or debit card information and I will ship merchandise.....
>>
>> All sorts of bells and whistles went off in my head, I am going to give
>> this
>> information over the phone to some individual I never heard of!!!!!!!!!!
>> not
>> very likely
>>
>> Everette
>>
>>
>>
>>
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>
>
>===Mil-Veh is a member-supported mailing list===
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>
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